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Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021
 
Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the
past few hours.  However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt
winds in a small area to the northwest of the center.  Based mainly
on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.  The storm is
moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with
increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to
decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point.  The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.
 
The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt.  As Jimena weakens, 
the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the 
low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually 
to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change 
from the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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