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Tropical Storm JIMENA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during 
the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in 
the southeastern semicircle.  Subjective satellite intensity 
estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite 
consensus estimate is 39 kt.  Based on these data, the system is 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds. 

The initial motion is 315/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the northeast 
of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 
days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward.  
After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the 
weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow.  The track 
guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous 
advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to 
the right.  However, the new forecast track still lies to the left 
of the consensus models. 

While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is 
moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center 
forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h.  Thus, little 
additional strengthening is expected.  After 24 h, the system 
should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear.  The 
new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous 
forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Dec-2021 12:09:52 UTC