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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021
The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier
today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and
some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east
and northeast of the center. Microwave imagery also suggests
little change in structure. The current intensity is held at
30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer
observations.
Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for
motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained
for the next 48-72 hours. This should keep the system on a
generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period.
By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left
following the low-level environmental winds. The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of
the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution
which is even farther to the right of these tracks.
Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment
for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems
likely. Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause
weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above most
of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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