ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the center. In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined, albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with increasing shear and mid-level dry air. Nine-E does have a chance to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on Friday. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile environment. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the HCCA corrected-consensus guidance. The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the steering for the cyclone. This ridge should strengthen somewhat during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late week. Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET solutions lie on the left side. The official track assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:56 UTC