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Tropical Depression NINE-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021

Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining 
two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the 
center.  In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined, 
albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories 
are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day 
hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.  

The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone 
again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with 
increasing shear and mid-level dry air.  Nine-E does have a chance 
to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before 
the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on 
Friday.  The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low 
again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile 
environment.  The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model 
consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the 
HCCA corrected-consensus guidance.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest 
today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the 
steering for the cyclone.  This ridge should strengthen somewhat 
during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn 
to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late 
week.  Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based 
guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF 
and UKMET solutions lie on the left side.  The official track 
assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and 
so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout 
the forecast period.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Dec-2021 12:09:49 UTC