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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021
The depression has become increasingly elongated west-to-east since
the previous advisory. Although deep convection has increased
somewhat near the center, with cloud tops now colder than -70C, the
convection isn't organized very well. The initial intensity is being
maintained at 25 kt until new ASCAT data arrives this afternoon.
The initial motion estimate is 270/04 kt. The latest NHC track
guidance is in decent agreement on the depression moving in a slow
westward direction for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a
west-northwestward motion as the ridge to north of the cyclone
weakens slightly. By around 72 hours, some binary interaction
between the depression and rapidly strengthening Tropical Storm
Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east, is expected. However, the
degree of interaction varies widely among the models. The GFS is the
most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5,
with the ECMWF being the weakest, showing little if any interaction
and keeps the cyclone moving generally westward through 120 h; the
other global and regional models lie somewhere in between these two
extremes. For now, the new official NHC track forecast was only
nudged slightly northward, and lies inside the southern edge of the
guidance envelope near the TVCE consensus model.
The depression's future intensity and existence depends heavily on
the track over the next 5 days. A more westward motion would keep
the cyclone over warmer water and in a better upper-level flow
regime. In contrast, a sharp northward motion, as per the GFS
solution, would place the system over colder water and within strong
vertical wind shear. Another negative factor is the effect of
intensifying Hilda to the east, which has started to draw in the
southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial inflow away from TD-9E.
This deflection of the low-level flow eastward away from the
depression could result in the cyclone's cyclone getting stretched
out/elongated east-to-west even further, which would induce
weakening or even dissipation of the cyclone. For now, the previous
intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory until the
track model guidance comes into better agreement, and the
interactive effects of Tropical Storm Hilda become clearer.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 12.1N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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