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Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021
The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible
satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized
convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed
winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the
satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during
the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is
maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves
over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment.
These conditions should suppress new convective development, as
suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite
imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda
degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well
east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected
to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading
through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a
low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly
clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to
reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW