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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021
Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface
temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The
current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of
subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB
and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C
SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still
ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental
parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a
depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early
Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well
to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend
of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.
Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This
general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level
ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build
westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its
remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast
track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and
lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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