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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021
Hilda is a weakening tropical cyclone. Its low-level center is now
exposed in visible satellite imagery, and infrared cloud top
temperatures have rapidly warmed as the system is currently not
producing any deep convection. Despite this lack of convection,
earlier scatterometer data revealed several 45-kt wind vectors in
the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The initial
intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is supported
by a blend of the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB, and the objective UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.
A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. continues to
steer Hilda northwestward at around 7 kt. As the vortex spins down
and becomes vertically shallow, Hilda is expected to turn
west-northwestward and accelerate a bit as a low-level ridge builds
westward across the eastern Pacific. The official NHC track forecast
is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the
multi-model consensus.
Hilda is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment, so continued weakening is expected over the next few
days. The official NHC forecast now shows Hilda weakening to a
tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerating to a
remnant low soon thereafter. The remnant low is still expected to
open up into a trough this weekend well east-northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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