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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021
Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening
today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the
cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last
advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum
winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the
eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial
wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water
temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a
weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance
continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough
this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at
about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California
should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude
trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is
expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate
the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to
mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of
the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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