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Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

Recent satellite images show that Hilda's cloud pattern has become 
less organized, with the low-level center on the northeast edge of 
the central dense overcast.  Microwave data also show a less 
distinct eye feature, along with a more broken eyewall.  The 
initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt, which is closest to the 
latest CIMSS-SATCON value.  
 
Hilda continues moving northwestward and should remain on that 
heading for the next day or two while it is steered by the 
subtropical ridge located near and west of Mexico.  No changes were 
made to the forecast during that time.  After that, the ridge 
builds farther to the west and a weakened Hilda should respond by 
taking west-northwestward and westward turns by late week.  
However, exactly when that happens is difficult to tell due to 
potential interaction at long range with the remnants of former TD 
9-E.  A fair number of the models are showing that system 
regenerating and getting closer to Hilda, which would have the 
tendency to steer Hilda farther northward. While the new forecast 
responds to this scenario by shifting the official track about half 
a degree poleward on day 3 and beyond, a lot of the latest guidance 
is even farther north.

It seems like Hilda might finally be on a steadier weakening trend 
with the recent degradation noted in satellite data.  With moderate 
northeasterly shear and decreasing water temperatures in the path of 
the cyclone, Hilda should continue to lose strength during the next 
few days. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance is a little higher than 
the last cycle, which doesn't feel like the correct forecast move 
at this time, especially as the forecast shifts northward over 
cooler waters faster. The new NHC forecast maintains the weakening 
trend from the last advisory, and now ends up lower than the bulk of 
the guidance.  Remnant-low status is anticipated just after day 3.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 15.9N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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