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Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021
The satellite presentation of Hilda hasn't changed much in the past
several hours, with a round central dense overcast and perhaps a
ragged eye trying to form. The intensity estimates range from 60-77
kt, and since the hurricane's presentation is about the same as the
last advisory, the current wind speed will remain 70 kt. This is
one of those times that in situ reconnaissance data would be helpful
since there has been lots of spread in the intensity estimates for
quite some time, and Hilda is at an intensity where it is hard to
get more precise measurements.
The hurricane has finally turned northwestward and should continue
in that general direction for the next couple of days on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, with some influence from
Ignacio to the northeast. Model guidance is in decent agreement
that Hilda will turn back to the west-northwest by midweek and then
west under the restrengthened subtropical ridge. While there are
still some outlier solutions, the latest consensus guidance is near
the previous NHC forecast, so only small changes were made on this
advisory.
Hilda is maintaining good inner-core structure on the latest
microwave data despite northeasterly shear (perhaps because of a
fairly moist mid-level environment around the hurricane), so little
intensity change is forecast for today. Thereafter, the system
should move over cooler waters into a drier environment, which
should cause gradual weakening for the next several days. Very
little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, and it is
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids throughout. Remnant-low
status is expected by 96 h, if not sooner.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 15.4N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake
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