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Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Hilda has had a similar appearance all day with an elongated cloud 
pattern from southeast to northwest on satellite imagery. Recent 
microwave passes show that the center is located on the northern 
side of the central dense overcast.  The current intensity estimates 
have a very wide range from 65 to 90 kt, and with the apparent 
steady-state of the hurricane, Hilda's wind speed will stay at 75 kt 
until clearer data emerges.
 
Hilda continues moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The trends 
from the last advisory have continued with more interaction shown 
with new Tropical Depression 10-E to the east, leading to a weaker 
ridge and a faster northwestward turn of Hilda in a day or so. By 
midweek, Hilda should turn back to the west-northwest and westward 
later in the period under the influence of a stronger portion of 
the ridge. The new official forecast is shifted about a half a 
degree to the northeast, near the model consensus, although the 
corrected-consensus models are even farther to the right.  

With the forecast track shift, it is becoming unlikely that Hilda 
will get significantly stronger since it will move over cooler 
waters sooner.  In addition, easterly shear should increase 
tomorrow, probably leading to the start of weakening.  Guidance has 
trended downward since the last cycle, and considering the new track 
forecast moves over cooler waters faster, the latest NHC wind speed 
forecast has been lowered 5-10 kt at all time periods, and this 
still might be too high.  In about 4 days, most of the models show 
little convection remaining with Hilda due to cold water and drier 
mid-level air, so the system should transition to a remnant low by 
day 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 14.8N 120.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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