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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021
Aside from an isolated shower or two, the cyclone has been
essentially devoid of deep convection for the past 12-15 hours. A
recent scatterometer overpass measured winds of 27 kt over the
northern portion of the circulation, and assuming some undersampling
by that instrument the advisory intensity remains 30 kt.
Guillermo has been moving just slightly south of due west or around
260/15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the
system should result in a westward to west-southwestward track
during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit
south of the previous track and follows the latest multi-model
consensus, TVCE, solution.
The cyclone is expected to traverse SSTs of 24-25 deg C during the
next couple of days, and continue to ingest relatively dry and
stable air as evidenced by the dense stratocumulus field ahead of
the system. These conditions should make it unlikely for Guillermo
to regenerate. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep
convection near the center soon, Guillermo will be declared a
remnant low pressure system later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 19.0N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.6N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0600Z 18.1N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z 17.5N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 16.9N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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