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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072021
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021
 
Guillermo is now producing a small shapeless area of convection 
about 70 miles to the southeast of the center, but otherwise, the 
cyclone consists mainly of a swirl of low clouds.  A recent METOP-A 
scatterometer pass showed an area 25-30 kt winds well north (about 
90 miles) of the center.  Based on this data, the initial intensity 
is lowered to 30 kt.  With the combined negative contributions of 
cool sub 25C oceanic temperatures, stiff west-northwesterly shear 
and entrainment of high statically stable marine-layer air, 
Guillermo should degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night, if 
not sooner.  The large-scale models and the statistical intensity 
guidance show the cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure 
by day 4, and the NHC forecast follows suit.
	
The depression has increased in forward speed to 15 kt, while moving 
westward in the fresh tradewind steering flow.  A continued westward 
motion on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge at 
about the same aforementioned speed is forecast during the entire 
period.  The official track forecast is close to the middle of the 
model guidance envelope and a little to the left of the previous 
advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 19.3N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.2N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 18.8N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 17.8N 133.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 17.6N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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