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HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062021
0900 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   5SE   5SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 127.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
 
 
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