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Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021
 
After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, 
Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and 
north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective 
activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. 
Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt 
from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT 
estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and 
that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial 
intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for 
this advisory.
 
The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a 
little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a 
large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the 
cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its 
lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the 
previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most 
recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track, 
Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later 
today, just after 2100 UTC.

Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale 
environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly 
vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C 
sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the 
deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia 
struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection 
near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia 
weakening into a tropical depression later today and then 
degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with 
the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open 
up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by 
60 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
 
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