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Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021
 
Felicia is a rapidly weakening tropical cyclone. The system has been 
reduced to a low- to mid-level cloud swirl in satellite imagery, 
with no deep and organized convection near its center since about 
0100 UTC. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show several 35-kt 
vectors in the northern semicircle of the compact cyclone, which 
supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt with this advisory.

The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/13 kt. It is 
expected to turn slightly more west-southwestward later today and 
maintain this heading for the next several days as it is steered by 
a subtropical ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is 
basically an update of the previous one and lies near the center of 
the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, 
Felicia will move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday night.

Felicia is embedded within a dry and stable airmass over SSTs of 
around 25 deg C, and the cyclone will move under the influence of 
strong northwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or so. 
Thus, it appears very unlikely that Felicia will be able to sustain 
any organized convection near its center, even as it moves deeper 
into the tropics over slightly warmer SSTs. The official NHC 
intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus and weakens 
Felicia to a tropical depression in 12 h, and to a remnant low by 
36 h. However, this could occur even sooner based on recent trends 
and the latest model-simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low 
is forecast to open up into a trough by Thursday night as it passes 
well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 15.9N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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