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Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021
 
Felicia continues to rapidly weaken over sea-surface temperatures 
(SST) of around 25 deg C and within a cooler and drier air mass. 
After an earlier burst of strong convection, all that remains of it 
is limited to the northeastern quadrant along with cloud tops now 
having warmed to -55C to -60C. The latest satellite intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB were 45 kt, and that is the intensity 
assigned for this advisory. Additional weakening is forecast through 
the remainder of the 72-h forecast period due to the cyclone 
remaining over SSTs near 25C, westerly vertical wind shear 
increasing to more than 30 kt by 24 hours, and continued entrainment 
of drier and cooler low- to mid-level air. The new NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a 
blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.

The initial motion estimate remains a little south of due west, or 
265/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of 
the cyclone is expected to steer Felicia west-southwestward to 
westward over the next few days until the small cyclone dissipates 
by 96 hours, if not sooner. Felicia will likely cross into the 
Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. The new official track 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies between 
the tightly packed TVCE and NOAA-HCCA track forecast models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 16.1N 134.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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