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Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021
 
Felicia continues to weaken at a rapid pace.  Satellite images show 
that only a small amount of deep convection in the northeastern 
quadrant remains, and otherwise the circulation is largely a swirl 
of low-level clouds.  Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a 
blend of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at 
the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity 
to 55 kt.  This makes Felicia a tropical storm once again. A recent 
ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds close to 45 kt, but given the very 
small size of the system and relatively coarse resolution of the 
instrument, it seems reasonable that stronger winds are occurring.
 
Very dry air surrounding the small storm combined with cool SSTs 
and a steady rise in northwesterly wind shear should cause 
additional weakening, and Felicia will likely become a remnant low 
in a couple of days, or possibly sooner if the current trends 
continue.  The intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance 
and is a little lower than the previous one.
 
Felicia has been losing some latitude today, and the latest initial 
motion estimate is 265/11 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north of the storm should steer Felicia west-southwestward to 
westward during the next several days until the cyclone dissipates, 
which is now expected to occur by day 4.  Based on the current 
forecast, Felicia should cross into the Central Pacific basin by 
Tuesday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 16.1N 133.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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