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Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021
 
Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer 
visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded 
underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI 
microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined 
eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern 
portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective 
UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB 
supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory.
 
Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next 
couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an 
environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of 
this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner 
core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to 
maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening 
that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF 
simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all 
deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the 
northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone. 
 
Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun 
turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be 
280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast 
during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a 
subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track 
guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track 
forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward 
adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on 
this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central 
Pacific basin on Tuesday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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