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Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021
 
Felicia continues to decline over water temperatures near or just 
below 26C. The eye is gradually becoming more difficult to locate in 
satellite imagery, and the CDO, while already small to begin with, 
has shrunk in size over the past several hours. A blend of the 
latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the 
hurricane has weakened to 90 kt. However, given that environment is 
not too hostile at the moment, is it reasonable to believe that the 
vortex of this mature tropical cyclone will take time to spin down 
despite the degradation in satellite images. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is being lowered to a perhaps generous 95 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The cooler waters alone should continue to take a toll on Felicia 
over the next couple of days by gradually eroding the deep 
convection. After 48 h, increasing northwesterly shear should help 
to inject dry and stable air into what remains of the core of the 
cyclone. By 96 h, if not sooner, Felicia is expected to have lost 
all of its deep convection and decay into a remnant low. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one 
through the first few days of the forecast period due to the rapidly 
decreasing wind speeds, and is near the ICON intensity consensus 
model. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is little changed from 
the previous one. 
 
Felicia continues its 10-kt west-northwestward trek to the south of 
a subtropical ridge. There is no change to the track forecast 
reasoning. Model guidance is in good agreement on the cyclone 
turning westward by Monday then perhaps west-southwestward later in 
the forecast period as the ridge expands and becomes oriented NE-SW. 
The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and 
lies in the middle of the consensus guidance. Based on this track, 
Felicia should cross over into the central Pacific basin Tuesday 
night. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 16.3N 130.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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