ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Satellite images indicate that Felicia remains a well-organized hurricane with an annular structure and a clear eye. However, the eye temperature has cooled a bit, along with some eyewall cloud-top warming. Intensity estimates have fallen somewhat, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 120 kt for this advisory. Gradually cooling SSTs should cause a general weakening trend with Felicia during the next day or so. The rate of weakening should increase sometime Monday due to decreasing instability and a modest rise in upper-level wind shear, which could assist with dry-air entrainment near the inner core. Due to the system's small size, Felicia could also weaken fairly quickly by Tuesday in these marginal environmental conditions, although this type of scenario is inherently low confidence. The new forecast remains on the high side of the guidance but is reduced from the previous one. By the end of the forecast period, stronger shear should be impacting the system, and hopefully we will be able to say bye Felicia on Thursday. Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The hurricane is forecast to turn again toward the west by late Sunday as a mid-level ridge to the north builds slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early in the work week due to the orientation of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is very low, leading to a high confidence track forecast, and the NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.2N 126.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:52 UTC