Hurricane FELICIA (Text)

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly
strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly
warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep
convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed
ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg
Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these
current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt
for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective
estimates of around 100 kt.
Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along
Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional
strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the
surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's
intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major
hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the
guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone
is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more
stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps
Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the
cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the
forecast period.
Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the
steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the
cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day
or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion
for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a
subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered
through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted
just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one,
bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and
INIT  16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:52 UTC