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Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021
 
Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery. 
However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the 
southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature 
somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement 
cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent 
in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with 
persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center. 
The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the 
available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support 
increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory.

Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the 
initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of 
the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day 
or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple 
of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become 
positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a 
westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest 
NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is 
near the tightly clustered track guidance. 

Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have 
increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a 
possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term 
due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface 
temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening 
should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late 
Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may 
begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to 
move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to 
gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the 
guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place. 
Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
Approach model HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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