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Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021
 
Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in 
organization and convective banding in association with Felicia.  
The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more
symmetric since this morning.  A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass 
revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted 
around the northwestern portion of the circulation.  Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 
kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial 
intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates. 

Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm
SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. 
The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, 
perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some 
pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone.  The 
NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 
24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the 
inner core.  After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable 
air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual 
weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through 
much of the forecast period. 
 
Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt.  A low- to 
mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should 
continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through 
early Thursday.  The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and 
become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause 
Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a 
west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through 
the rest of the forecast period.  The track guidance remains in 
fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence 
in the official forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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