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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021
 
...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 107.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over
portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula Tuesday night
or Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night.
 
RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
through Thursday morning.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will
spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the
Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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