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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021
Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south
of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit
over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained
as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above
the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique
should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with
the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The
official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective
guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique
should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in
36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct.
Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my
best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt.
This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar
provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to
the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a
northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The
official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected
consensus solution.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across
portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of
flash flooding and mudslides.
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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