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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021
Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this
morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air
into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity.
Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern
semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its
lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with
this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate
and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.
Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that
the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of
previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain
335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the
northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula
tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted
slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for
the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model
consensus.
Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat
content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity
models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression
by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized
convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple of days. The additional rainfall over the
mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding
and mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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