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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021
This afternoon Enrique's satellite structure has rapidly
deteriorated, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to the
north of a shrinking region of deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB
came in with T4.0/65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates this afternoon,
however the data T-numbers, which are less constrained than the
Current Intensity numbers, were lower. The latest objective UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates has also been rapidly dropping with the current value
at T3.0/45 kt. Since the satellite structure has continued to
degrade, Enrique has been downgraded to a tropical storm with a 60
kt intensity.
Enrique has continued to turn leftward through the course of the
day, with the estimated motion now at 315/5 kt. Over the next few
days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to maintain the
storm on a slow northwest heading. However, there has been a subtle
left and fast shift in the guidance this afternoon. The latest NHC
track forecast has shifted a bit west and is a bit faster in
accordance with the consensus aids, but is not as far west or quick
as the latest TVCE consensus.
Dry-air entrainment has done a number to the inner core of Enrique
today. As the storm continues to move northwestward towards lower
oceanic heat content and a drier and more stable environment,
weakening is expected to continue. However, the storm is still
forecasted to be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip
of Baja California where tropical storm watches remain in effect. By
72 h the low-level circulation could be further disrupted by the
terrain of Baja California and the latest NHC forecast expects
Enrique to degenerate into a remnant low by that time.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
2. The core of Enrique is moving away from southwestern coast of
Mexico this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds could still
occur over portions of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas
through tonight.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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