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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021
 
The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as 
the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air 
entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher 
terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the 
northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's 
inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave 
pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 
kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was 
lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates.
 
Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the 
left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level 
ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. 
The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though 
there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. 
The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the 
previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. 
 
Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly 
ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as 
the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening 
rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be 
a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. 
However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because 
Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature 
gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in 
faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow 
Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. 

Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a 
tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along 
southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days,
which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the 
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is 
in effect for a portion of that area.  Tropical-storm-force winds 
are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico 
within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are 
possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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