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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021
 
The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this
evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery.  A 
couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall 
structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast.  The 
microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the 
southern portion of the cyclone.  Although the eye has been 
apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both
TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates
slightly lower.  Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is
maintained for this advisory.
 
The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive
for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure
suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change
in strength is anticipated through early Monday.  After that time,
decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of
cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to
lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours.  Later in the
forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more
stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential
interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to
result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and
the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.
 
Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it
appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be
beginning.  The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed
from the previous advisory.  A ridge is forecast to build to the
northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to
turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should
continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat
better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and
the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.  On 
the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests
in that area should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a
portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the
warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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