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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery
since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature
has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and
structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest
Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity
remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses
helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed
that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area
of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest
core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore.
Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today.
However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward
component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07
kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently
moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone
tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This
northwestward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track
and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique
are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through
tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest
winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the
system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.
Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for
strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the
official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur
through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin
moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the
fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling
should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a
gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the
cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into
a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the
pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a
remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether
or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the
southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a
Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally
become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the
corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a
Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern
Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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