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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021
The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much
over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on
geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined
convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a
blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more
strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official
forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and
decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to
commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be
entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja
California peninsula, which should also contribute to the
weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU
Superensemble predictions.
Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion
estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents
are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The
system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to
northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days.
Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should
gradually bend to the left under the influence of the
lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too
different from the previous NHC track.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple
of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the
wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a portion of that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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