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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
 
After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding
has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center
of Enrique this evening.  A couple of microwave overpasses since the
previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye
feature.  These observations suggest that some of the dry air
noted earlier has mixed out.  Although objective satellite intensity
estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB 
and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at 
75 kt.
 
Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously
forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight
intensification in the short term.  After that time, moderate
easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along
the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening
with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to
three days.  A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the
forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a
drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula.  
This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day 
5.
 
Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is
located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a
slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position.  Although the
latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC
advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt.  The ridge
to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening
over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the
southwest United States.  As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn
north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36
hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the
northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward
the northwest.  The latest official forecast is fairly similar to
the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period.  The new
forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and 
HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern
Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the
hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the
coast.  Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has
also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple 
of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday.  Although the 
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any 
deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or 
expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore 
a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Therefore, a 
Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
 
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