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Hurricane ENRIQUE (Text)


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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
 
Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The 
hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of 
an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry 
air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner 
core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also 
be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the 
cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite 
estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The 
latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70 
kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity 
of 75 kt for this advisory.

Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated 
motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As 
discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the 
northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm 
weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four 
Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is 
more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are 
some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and 
HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE 
consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for 
the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting 
a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that 
direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the 
forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast 
with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any 
additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane 
watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or 
tomorrow. 

Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent 
disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its 
eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance 
indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little 
earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative 
factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased 
from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little 
additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward 
motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional 
dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to 
lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter 
portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below 
26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating 
into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the 
forecast.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Dec-2021 12:09:43 UTC