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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better 
organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central 
dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops 
colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall.  Satellite 
intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt 
from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS 
ADT.  The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on 
the latter estimate.  Although the cyclone continues to intensify, 
cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear 
is occurring.

The initial motion is 290/7.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the 
storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should 
cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h.
After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing 
the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again.  The 
track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last 
advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show 
a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the 
coast of Mexico.  The new forecast track is also shifted a little to 
the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various 
consensus models.  Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track 
to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical 
wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 
24 to 36 hours.  Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening 
is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the 
SHIPS model.  The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity 
of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity 
guidance.  After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady 
weakening.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, 
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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