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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
 
Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite 
imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent 
banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon, 
a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed 
over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense 
overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to 
assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer 
wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt 
winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval 
of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt, 
while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique 
(ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at 
T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat 
lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45 
kt.  

Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of 
the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The 
track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with 
a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead 
to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in 
its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to 
the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the 
cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while 
becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has 
shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track 
forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance 
consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models.

Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to 
intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a 
favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level 
humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest 
SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt 
wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its 
climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just 
below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours. 
After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler 
upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to 
begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in 
good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a 
little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).
 
The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance 
of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo 
Corrientes. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of 
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm 
Warning has been issued for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
 
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