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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
...DOLORES MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MICHOACAN/COLIMA BORDER JUST 
BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 103.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
making landfall on the southwestern coast of Mexico near latitude 
18.6 North, longitude 103.7 West.  Dolores is moving toward the 
north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Dolores will move farther inland across western 
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Now that Dolores is making landfall, rapid 
weakening is expected later today and tonight while the center 
moves inland over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico.  
Dolores is likely to dissipate over west-central Mexico on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area and will continue to spread inland across portions of
west-central Mexico through tonight.  Hurricane conditions, 
especially in gusts, are still possible within the hurricane watch 
area for a few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday 
morning.
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across 
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, 
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. 
This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.
 
Additionally, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches is expected for western Oaxaca.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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