ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 
FORECASTED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo southward to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.1 West. Dolores is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this 
motion is expected to continue with a gradual acceleration prior to 
landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the 
southwest coast of Mexico later today.
 
Maximum sustained winds have incrased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected prior to 
landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity 
when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected 
after landfall and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of 
the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the 
warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or 
dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the 
hurricane watch area by late this morning and afternoon. Tropical 
storm conditions will possible within the tropical storm watch area 
this evening through Sunday morning.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely
produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches is expected for western Oaxaca, as well as
southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 
NNNN