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Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
...DOLORES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 102.8 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed
is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern
or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall
Saturday afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and
Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning later tonight or on Saturday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.