ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042021
0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO
CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
 
 
NNNN