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Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with 
the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops 
have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated 
low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the 
storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity 
estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most 
recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. 
Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or 
scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core 
structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective 
intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt 
for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. 
 
Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm 
gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a 
mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual 
acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until 
landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over 
the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a 
bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close 
agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is 
expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push 
far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast 
track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch 
further to the southeast for this advisory.
 
Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for 
additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican 
coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast 
intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance 
consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. 
Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western 
Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if 
not sooner.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until 
landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon.  A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of
the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.
 
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 
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