ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021
Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south
and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation.
However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become
more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective
appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z
and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still
producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore,
the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory.
Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the
previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to
occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward
motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind
flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and
NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.
The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm
water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are
27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry
and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into
the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt
has been increasing from the west. Although SSTs are expected to be
warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the
unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is
expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low
by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN
intensity consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN