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Tropical Depression CARLOS

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021
Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south 
and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation. 
However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become 
more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective 
appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z 
and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still 
producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore, 
the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the 
previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to 
occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward 
motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically 
shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind 
flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of 
the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and 
NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm 
water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are 
27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry 
and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into 
the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt 
has been increasing from the west.  Although SSTs are expected to be 
warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the 
unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is 
expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low 
by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN 
intensity consensus models.

INIT  16/0900Z  9.2N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z  9.2N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z  9.2N 137.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z  9.4N 138.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z  9.6N 139.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1800Z  9.8N 141.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Stewart