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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021
Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection
near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks
significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto
Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set
at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that
showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone.
The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07
kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during
the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of
a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain
warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief
convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level
moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos
will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should
seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is
expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate
by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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