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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021
 
Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take 
their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the 
depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the 
center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This 
meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered 
organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection 
develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite 
the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed 
several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 
30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression 
is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin 
down, with dissipation expected within a few days.
 
Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion 
is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's 
existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and 
turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level 
ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed 
from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z  9.8N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z  9.6N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z  9.4N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z  9.5N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z  9.7N 138.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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