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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take
their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the
depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the
center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This
meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered
organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection
develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite
the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed
several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains
30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression
is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin
down, with dissipation expected within a few days.
Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's
existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and
turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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