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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021
 
Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the 
low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry, 
stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind 
shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity 
estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for 
this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the 
highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only 
26 kt.
 
Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at
245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next
day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone
becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge
over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit
faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in
agreement with the multi-model consensus.
 
The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative 
humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will 
ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing 
sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that 
convection has dissipated again near the center, without another 
resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone 
degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite 
forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane 
model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts 
will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized 
to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected 
to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this 
afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will 
continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72 
h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z  9.6N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z  9.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z  9.5N 135.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z  9.5N 137.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z  9.7N 138.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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