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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression
was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon
with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small
burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the
low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is
embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos
remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best
agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from
TAFB.
The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt.
This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a
westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that
should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track
forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous
one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.
Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track,
Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from
its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly
shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system
appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h
or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any
sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the
global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by
Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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