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Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

The satellite appearance of Carlos has degraded this evening. A 
ragged area of deep convection persists near and to the west of the 
estimated center position, but infrared cloud top temperatures have 
recently warmed and the system's organization has not improved. 
Therefore, the initial intensity of Carlos is lowered to 40 kt for 
this advisory. This is consistent with objective UW-CIMSS ADT and 
SATCON estimates between 35-40 kt, as well as an average of the 
subjective Dvorak classifications received from TAFB and SAB. 

Carlos continues to be steered west-southwestward by a mid-level 
ridge to its north and northwest. This general motion is expected to 
persist for the next couple of days. Fortunately, the vast majority 
of reliable track guidance has come into much better agreement for 
day 3 and beyond, showing the weakening cyclone moving generally 
westward to the south of a low-level ridge. Substantial adjustments 
were once again made to the official NHC track forecast beyond 48 h 
to show a westward to west-northwestward motion on days 3-5, which 
is consistent with the latest guidance consensus. The updated track 
forecast lies closer to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) 
and TVCE consensus aids, although it is still somewhat slower and 
right-of-track to allow for a gradual shift in the NHC forecast.

Carlos is forecast to move over warm sea-surface temperatures in 
an environment with fairly low vertical wind shear for the next 12 h 
or so. However, surrounding dry air may periodically disrupt the 
cyclone's convective structure, and thus limit its ability to become 
more organized and intensify. Therefore, only small fluctuations in 
intensity are expected. Thereafter, decreasing oceanic heat content 
and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear within a drier 
mid-level environment should induce a weakening trend. The latest 
NHC forecast calls for Carlos to weaken into a tropical depression 
by Tuesday night. Marginal environmental conditions and continued 
bouts of dry air will affect Carlos through late week, and it is 
plausible that Carlos will become a remnant low even earlier than 
forecast, perhaps by the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 11.6N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 11.3N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 10.9N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 10.2N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 10.2N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 10.3N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 11.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 11.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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