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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021
Like the past two days, deep convection that had been present near
Blanca this morning has sheared away and collapsed this afternoon,
revealing an increasingly diffuse structure with multiple low-level
swirls. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800Z were 30 kt from TAFB
and too weak to classify by SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS ADT
objective estimate was a little higher at 35 kt. Unfortunately,
Blanca was missed by all three scatterometer overpasses this
afternoon. However, assuming little change in the wind field has
occurred from last night, the current intensity has been held at 30
kt for this advisory.
Blanca's mean circulation center has resumed a slow due west motion
at 270/3 kt, though some uncertainty exists since multiple low-level
swirls are evident on visible satellite imagery. Now that convection
has weakened once again, the steering currents will be dominated by
the flow around a poleward low-level ridge. This flow is expected to
keep Blanca on a westward heading for the remainder of its lifespan.
The latest track forecast is largely an update from the previous
forecast cycle and is in close agreement between the TCVE and HCCA
consensus aids.
Now that convection near the center of Blanca has largely
dissipated, the clock has been reset for its remaining lifespan as a
tropical cyclone. While the current NHC forecast does not preclude
the possibility that another convective burst could occur over the
next 24 h, increasingly dry, stable air from the northwest and
continued unfavorable southwesterly vertical wind shear should limit
any significant convective organization near Blanca's center. The
latest NHC intensity forecast expects Blanca to become a remnant low
on Friday, with the remnant low likely opening up into a trough by
the end of the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.6N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 15.7N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 15.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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